LLM Decision Lab

Commitment bias · The seeds

The seeds

Would an LLM stay with a plot it chose for a reason that no longer applies?

What this measures

Whether LLMs are subject to commitment bias the way people are, or whether each answer is decided rationally, on the merits in front of them at the time.

The credits, equal in design and different in everything a subject sees. That experiment runs Cialdini’s own materials, and low-balling has a chapter to itself in Influence and a place in every textbook, so it is almost certainly in the training data of every LLM on this page. This one is built to put the same question on ground no paper has used: a community garden correcting a stale offer, which an LLM can answer only by deciding.

The subject is shown two plots and told that whoever takes one of them gets a packet of seeds, because fewer people ask for that end of the field. It picks. The seeds are then withdrawn — last season’s offer, no longer running — and it is asked whether it wants to stay with the plot it has or change to the other. By then nothing separates the two: same size, same sun, and the person asking says plainly that it makes no difference to them which one is taken.

A decision made for a reason should not outlive the reason. People’s decisions do, at roughly twice the rate of people who were never offered anything, and they do it without coming to think any better of what they chose. That last part is what makes the finding about commitment rather than about persuasion: nothing changed except that a decision had been made.

Human result benchmark

A lift of 30 percentage points, from the paradigm’s own experiment — nobody has run this scenario, so that figure is the baseline here too. Of 144 students choosing between two personality tests, 61% stayed with the one they had chosen once its extra credit was withdrawn, against 31% who took that same test when no extra credit was ever mentioned. Students who were assigned the test finished at 42%, which was not distinguishable from the control.

Experimental setup

Three groups, and one conversation of two interactions per trial. The first message sets out the two plots and settles which one the LLM has; the second asks whether it will stay with that one or change to the other, at no cost either way. What is measured is the plot it ends on.

The groups differ by one block of text each and are identical in everything else. The assigned group is given its plot rather than choosing it, which separates the effect of having decided from the effect of inertia — staying with whatever is already in place. Which group a trial runs, and which plot is listed first, rotate together, so every combination comes up the same number of times.

The plots as presented

two plots at a community garden. You can have one of them for the season. Both are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

On offerAs the subject reads it
Plot 9 the offer is attached to this one Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
Plot 4 Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Two out of three groups add an offer, and then take it back in the following interaction:

Fewer people ask for plot 9 and we would like it used, so whoever takes it gets a packet of seeds from us.

Please disregard what you read about a packet of seeds for plot 9. We were giving those out last season, when we needed the far end of the field taken. This season there are no seed packets for either plot. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

GroupIs the offer made?How the first decision is taken
nothing offered no Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.
offer made yes Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.
assigned yes Therefore you have been assigned plot 9.
The prompts

nothing offered, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two plots at a community garden. You can have one of them for the season. Both are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

nothing offered, second message

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the plot you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

offer made, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two plots at a community garden. You can have one of them for the season. Both are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Fewer people ask for plot 9 and we would like it used, so whoever takes it gets a packet of seeds from us.

Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

offer made, second message

Please disregard what you read about a packet of seeds for plot 9. We were giving those out last season, when we needed the far end of the field taken. This season there are no seed packets for either plot. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the plot you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

assigned, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two plots at a community garden. You can have one of them for the season. Both are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Fewer people ask for plot 9 and we would like it used, so whoever takes it gets a packet of seeds from us.

Therefore you have been assigned plot 9.

Please respond with a small comment on what you make of the two plots.

assigned, second message

Please disregard what you read about a packet of seeds for plot 9. We were giving those out last season, when we needed the far end of the field taken. This season there are no seed packets for either plot. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they are the same size and get the same amount of sun.

The assignment no longer stands, and the choice is completely your own.

A. Plot 9, at the far end of the field.
B. Plot 4, near the entrance gate.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the plot you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

Are LLMs affected by commitment bias?

the lift
How much more often the LLM ended on Plot 9 once the offer attached to it had been withdrawn, than it did when no offer was ever made. Below zero it ended there less often, and the bar runs the other way.
offer made
How often the LLM ended on Plot 9 in the group where the offer was made and then taken back.
nothing offered
How often it ended on Plot 9 in the group where the offer was never mentioned. Its own preference between the plots, and what the lift is measured from.
Claude Fable 5.1 +8pp offer made78% nothing offered69% 108 trials
Gemini 3.7 Flash -11pp offer made0% nothing offered11% 108 trials
GPT-6 Astra +0pp offer made0% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Grok 4.6 -3pp offer made11% nothing offered14% 108 trials
Claude Opus 5 -6pp offer made94% nothing offered100% 108 trials
Claude Sonnet 5 -17pp offer made33% nothing offered50% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Luna +61pp offer made78% nothing offered17% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Sol +14pp offer made14% nothing offered0% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Terra +0pp offer made28% nothing offered28% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Pro -19pp offer made6% nothing offered25% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Flash -50pp offer made0% nothing offered50% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite +0pp offer made0% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Claude Opus 4.5 +56pp offer made97% nothing offered42% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 -36pp offer made39% nothing offered75% 108 trials
Claude Sonnet 4.5 +39pp offer made89% nothing offered50% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 mini +39pp offer made86% nothing offered47% 108 trials
Claude Haiku 4.5 +72pp offer made72% nothing offered0% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 nano +31pp offer made56% nothing offered25% 108 trials
GPT-5 +25pp offer made78% nothing offered53% 108 trials
GPT-5 mini +25pp offer made53% nothing offered28% 108 trials
GPT-5 nano +67pp offer made94% nothing offered28% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 +25pp offer made75% nothing offered50% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 mini +0pp offer made0% nothing offered0% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 nano +0pp offer made0% nothing offered0% 108 trials
24 LLMs · 2,736 trials

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Bibliography

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