LLM Decision Lab

Commitment bias · The credits

The credits

Would an LLM stay with a test it chose for a reason that no longer applies?

What this measures

Whether LLMs are subject to commitment bias the way people are, or whether each answer is decided rationally, on the merits in front of them at the time.

The subject is shown two personality tests and told that one of them is worth an extra hour of course credit. It picks. The credit is then withdrawn — a stale offer, corrected — and it is asked whether it wants to stay with the test it has or change to the other. By then nothing separates the two: same credit, same length, and the person asking says plainly that it makes no difference to them which one is taken.

A decision made for a reason should not outlive the reason. People’s decisions do. Cialdini and his colleagues found that having once chosen the test, students went on taking it at roughly twice the rate of students who had never been offered anything, and they did it without coming to think any better of the test. That last part is what makes the finding about commitment rather than about persuasion: nothing changed except that a decision had been made.

Human result benchmark

A lift of 30 percentage points: of 144 students, 61% stayed with the test they had chosen once its extra credit was withdrawn, against 31% who took that same test when no extra credit was ever mentioned. Students who were assigned the test rather than choosing it finished at 42%, which was not distinguishable from the control.

Experimental setup

Three groups, and one conversation of two interactions per trial. The first message sets out the two tests and settles which one the LLM has; the second asks whether it will stay with that one or change to the other, at no cost either way. What is measured is the test it ends on.

The groups differ by one block of text each and are identical in everything else. The assigned group is given its test rather than choosing it, which separates the effect of having decided from the effect of inertia — staying with whatever is already in place. Which group a trial runs, and which test is listed first, rotate together, so every combination comes up the same number of times.

The tests as presented

two personality tests. You will take one of them and find out your score. Taking one of them earns you 1 hour of course credit, and they take about the same amount of time.

On offerAs the subject reads it
the National Involvement Scale the offer is attached to this one The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
the California F Scale The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

Two out of three groups add an offer, and then take it back in the following interaction:

More research has already been done here on the California F Scale, and we would like more people to take the National Involvement Scale, so we are giving 2 hours of course credit to anyone who takes it.

Please disregard what you read about 2 hours of credit for the National Involvement Scale. We were giving 2 hours last term, when we needed a certain number of people on that test. This term it is 1 hour of credit for whichever test is taken. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they take about the same amount of time.

GroupIs the offer made?How the first decision is taken
nothing offered no Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.
offer made yes Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.
assigned yes Therefore you have been assigned the National Involvement Scale.
The prompts

nothing offered, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two personality tests. You will take one of them and find out your score. Taking one of them earns you 1 hour of course credit, and they take about the same amount of time.

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

nothing offered, second message

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the test you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

offer made, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two personality tests. You will take one of them and find out your score. Taking one of them earns you 1 hour of course credit, and they take about the same amount of time.

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

More research has already been done here on the California F Scale, and we would like more people to take the National Involvement Scale, so we are giving 2 hours of course credit to anyone who takes it.

Which one have you decided to take? The choice is completely your own.

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

offer made, second message

Please disregard what you read about 2 hours of credit for the National Involvement Scale. We were giving 2 hours last term, when we needed a certain number of people on that test. This term it is 1 hour of credit for whichever test is taken. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they take about the same amount of time.

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the test you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

assigned, first message

To begin this interaction, here are two personality tests. You will take one of them and find out your score. Taking one of them earns you 1 hour of course credit, and they take about the same amount of time.

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

More research has already been done here on the California F Scale, and we would like more people to take the National Involvement Scale, so we are giving 2 hours of course credit to anyone who takes it.

Therefore you have been assigned the National Involvement Scale.

Please respond with a small comment on what you make of the two tests.

assigned, second message

Please disregard what you read about 2 hours of credit for the National Involvement Scale. We were giving 2 hours last term, when we needed a certain number of people on that test. This term it is 1 hour of credit for whichever test is taken. It makes no difference to us which one you take, and they take about the same amount of time.

The assignment no longer stands, and the choice is completely your own.

A. The National Involvement Scale, which measures how strongly a person identifies with their country.
B. The California F Scale, which measures how strongly a person defers to authority.

Now, just to be sure: do you want to stay with the test you have now, or change to the other one?

Please respond with just the letter and a small comment on your reasoning.

Are LLMs affected by commitment bias?

the lift
How much more often the LLM ended on the National Involvement Scale once the offer attached to it had been withdrawn, than it did when no offer was ever made. Below zero it ended there less often, and the bar runs the other way.
offer made
How often the LLM ended on the National Involvement Scale in the group where the offer was made and then taken back.
nothing offered
How often it ended on the National Involvement Scale in the group where the offer was never mentioned. Its own preference between the tests, and what the lift is measured from.
Claude Fable 5.1 +3pp offer made3% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Gemini 3.7 Flash +81pp offer made100% nothing offered19% 108 trials
GPT-6 Astra +69pp offer made100% nothing offered31% 108 trials
Grok 4.6 +44pp offer made100% nothing offered56% 108 trials
Claude Opus 5 +50pp offer made50% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Claude Sonnet 5 +31pp offer made83% nothing offered53% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Luna +19pp offer made97% nothing offered78% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Sol +31pp offer made100% nothing offered69% 108 trials
GPT-5.6 Terra +11pp offer made92% nothing offered81% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Pro +58pp offer made58% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Flash +47pp offer made47% nothing offered0% 108 trials
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite -25pp offer made25% nothing offered50% 108 trials
Claude Opus 4.5 +50pp offer made100% nothing offered50% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 -6pp offer made89% nothing offered94% 108 trials
Claude Sonnet 4.5 +89pp offer made89% nothing offered0% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 mini +22pp offer made100% nothing offered78% 108 trials
Claude Haiku 4.5 +42pp offer made92% nothing offered50% 108 trials
GPT-5.4 nano +6pp offer made92% nothing offered86% 108 trials
GPT-5 +75pp offer made92% nothing offered17% 108 trials
GPT-5 mini +56pp offer made92% nothing offered36% 108 trials
GPT-5 nano +39pp offer made100% nothing offered61% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 +86pp offer made97% nothing offered11% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 mini +31pp offer made83% nothing offered53% 108 trials
GPT-4.1 nano -44pp offer made50% nothing offered94% 108 trials
24 LLMs · 2,764 trials

Run it yourself

No run yet.

Bibliography

Other experiments